![]() His injury-wrecked 2020 campaign, however, is a slight knock in comparison. Like Watt and Garrett, Bosa boasts a track record of sack and pass rush win rate success. That double-team rate isn't in the model I'd like to include it one day, but I'd also need to figure out how to forecast double-team rate because, after all, Bosa might just get the same attention again in 2022. It's not enough to bring Garrett onto Watt's level in our projections, but it does bring him within one projected sack of his AFC North rival.īosa's 15.5 sacks last season were particularly impressive because he was double-teamed on 26% of his pass rushes when he lined up on the edge, the second-highest rate in the league. That gives him an edge: teams that are winning force their opponent to pass more often and in desperation more often, increasing defenders' sack opportunities. Cleveland's win total currently sits at 9.5, while Pittsburgh's is 7.5, per Caesars Sportsbook. Garrett had 28 sacks over the past two seasons and an oddly identical 26.5% pass rush win rate in both years. ![]() Though second to Watt, the model's opinion of Garrett is strong. Watt backs up his sack success with effectiveness in pass rush win rate, as he led the league in 2020 and was fifth among edge rushers last season.Īnd as if Watt needed any help, he's facing a slate of quarterbacks who collectively had one of the highest average sacked rates last season, including Joe Burrow, Zach Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield - four of the five quarterbacks sacked at the highest rate in 2021. 2 player on this list, but he did so on more than 100 fewer pass rushes.īut his sack total isn't the only reason he's at the top of this list. To put Watt's effectiveness in more context, not only did he record 6.5 more sacks than Myles Garrett, the No. And despite the math we're doing, the simplest reason - his superb production in recent seasons - is the most important in forecasting a strong 2022. Watt's incredible 2021 campaign saw him tie Michael Strahan's single-season sack record. Who will break out, who is headed toward a decline and what do we make of players in new destinations? Let's break it all down below, with the full top 50 included below too: There are less clear-cut calls below the No. For the top 50 players listed in last year's story, the model recorded a mean absolute error of 3.8 sacks without a bias in either direction (meaning it was not globally over or underestimating).Īt the time, I noted 39 non-rookies with a sack total betting line at DraftKings, and the model recorded a slightly lower mean absolute error on those players than the lines did, meaning the model's predictions were closer to the players' actual sack totals than the betting lines were, at least on average among those 39 instances. I was pleased with the model's performance in Year 1. 1 spot is occupied by a familiar face, who led the league in sacks, though admittedly with far more than the model predicted. ![]() How often a player rushes from edge (as opposed to the interior)ĭefensive linemen and linebackers who rushed at least 25% of the time last season and are projected to play at least 250 snaps this season by Clay were included, and rookies were excluded.Ī year later, the No. How often opposing quarterbacks on each player's 2022 schedule get sackedĪ player's team's win total, which matters because a winning team forces opponents to take greater risks and pass more How often a player's defensive coordinator/head coach has blitzed in the past ![]() Pass rush win rate (PRWR), which uses player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats Projected snaps, courtesy of ESPN's Mike Clay Sack totals and rates over the past two seasons We're using the same model as last year (with some light tweaks) that includes some of the following inputs: And for the second straight year we're using a statistical model to predict that number for the league's best defenders based on past performance attributes and their 2022 playing situation. NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington CommandersĮven in an age in which we're developing shinier new metrics, NFL pass-rushers are judged by one number before all others: their sack total. NFL sack total projection leaders for 2022: Ranking top 50 pass-rushers, including T.J. You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser ![]()
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